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NSÍ II vs Undrid — 1. Deild 2019

NSÍ II
NSÍ II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Undrid
Undrid
6/28/20221. Deild1. Deild · Round 15við Løkin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

NSÍ II45%
×Draw21%
Undrid34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NSÍ II
2.02
Undrid
1.74

NSÍ II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 13 away

creates per match

NSÍ II
1.97
Undrid
1.46

allows per match

NSÍ II
2.02
Undrid
2.08

finishing

NSÍ II+0.00on par
Undrid+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NSÍ II ↓

Undrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

NSÍ II or draw
66%
NSÍ II or Undrid
79%
Draw or Undrid
55%

Winning margin

NSÍ II wins by 2+
25%
Undrid wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

NSÍ II 1+ goals
87%
NSÍ II 2+ goals
60%
NSÍ II 3+ goals
33%
Undrid 1+ goals
82%
Undrid 2+ goals
52%
Undrid 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

NSÍ II (draw refunded)
57%
Undrid (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NSÍ II at home — creates 1.97, concedes 2.02 · 89 matches

Undrid away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NSÍ II attack 1.97 + Undrid defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.02

Undrid attack 1.46 + NSÍ II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

NSÍ II scores more
45%
level
21%
Undrid scores more
34%

NSÍ II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "NSÍ II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NSÍ II vs Undrid

Undrid beat NSÍ II 3-2 in 1. Deild on June 28, 2022.

The match was played at við Løkin in Runavík, Eysturoy.