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Undrid vs HB II — 1. Deild 2019

Undrid
Undrid
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
HB II
HB II
10/1/20221. Deild1. Deild · Round 24Hoyvíksvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Undrid56%
×Draw21%
HB II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Undrid
2.08
HB II
1.27

Undrid creates 64% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 90 away

creates per match

Undrid
1.93
HB II
1.47

allows per match

Undrid
1.07
HB II
2.23

finishing

Undrid+0.00on par
HB II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Undrid ↓

HB II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Undrid or draw
77%
Undrid or HB II
79%
Draw or HB II
44%

Winning margin

Undrid wins by 2+
33%
HB II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Undrid 1+ goals
87%
Undrid 2+ goals
61%
Undrid 3+ goals
34%
HB II 1+ goals
72%
HB II 2+ goals
36%
HB II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Undrid (draw refunded)
71%
HB II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Undrid at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

HB II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.23 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Undrid attack 1.93 + HB II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.08

HB II attack 1.47 + Undrid defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Undrid scores more
56%
level
21%
HB II scores more
23%

Undrid at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Undrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Undrid 3–0 HB II

Undrid beat HB II 3-0 in 1. Deild on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Hoyvíksvøllur in Hoyvík.