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HB II vs Undrid — 1. Deild 2019

HB II
HB II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Undrid
Undrid
6/24/20221. Deild1. Deild · Round 14Gundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

HB II39%
×Draw22%
Undrid39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HB II
1.86
Undrid
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 13 away

creates per match

HB II
1.65
Undrid
1.46

allows per match

HB II
2.27
Undrid
2.08

finishing

HB II+0.00on par
Undrid+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB II ↓

Undrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

HB II or draw
61%
HB II or Undrid
78%
Draw or Undrid
61%

Winning margin

HB II wins by 2+
21%
Undrid wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

HB II 1+ goals
84%
HB II 2+ goals
55%
HB II 3+ goals
28%
Undrid 1+ goals
84%
Undrid 2+ goals
55%
Undrid 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

HB II (draw refunded)
50%
Undrid (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.27 · 88 matches

Undrid away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB II attack 1.65 + Undrid defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.86

Undrid attack 1.46 + HB II defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

HB II scores more
39%
level
22%
Undrid scores more
39%

HB II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "HB II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HB II 2 – 3 Undrid

Undrid beat HB II 3-2 in 1. Deild on June 24, 2022.

The match was played at Gundadalur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.