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Undrid vs B36 II — 1. Deild 2019

Undrid
Undrid
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
B36 II
B36 II
6/18/20221. Deild1. Deild · Round 13Hoyvíksvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Undrid55%
×Draw21%
B36 II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Undrid
2.09
B36 II
1.31

Undrid creates 60% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 102 away

creates per match

Undrid
1.93
B36 II
1.54

allows per match

Undrid
1.07
B36 II
2.25

finishing

Undrid+0.00on par
B36 II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Undrid ↓

B36 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Undrid or draw
76%
Undrid or B36 II
79%
Draw or B36 II
45%

Winning margin

Undrid wins by 2+
33%
B36 II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Undrid 1+ goals
88%
Undrid 2+ goals
62%
Undrid 3+ goals
34%
B36 II 1+ goals
73%
B36 II 2+ goals
38%
B36 II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Undrid (draw refunded)
70%
B36 II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Undrid at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

B36 II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.25 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Undrid attack 1.93 + B36 II defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.09

B36 II attack 1.54 + Undrid defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Undrid scores more
55%
level
21%
B36 II scores more
24%

Undrid at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Undrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Undrid 1 – 0 B36 II

Undrid beat B36 II 1-0 in 1. Deild on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Hoyvíksvøllur in Hoyvík.