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B36 II vs Undrid — 1. Deild 2019

B36 II
B36 II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Undrid
Undrid
9/15/20221. Deild1. Deild · Round 23Gundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

B36 II47%
×Draw22%
Undrid31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B36 II
1.97
Undrid
1.57

B36 II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 13 away

creates per match

B36 II
1.85
Undrid
1.46

allows per match

B36 II
1.68
Undrid
2.08

finishing

B36 II+0.00on par
Undrid+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B36 II ↓

Undrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

B36 II or draw
69%
B36 II or Undrid
78%
Draw or Undrid
53%

Winning margin

B36 II wins by 2+
26%
Undrid wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

B36 II 1+ goals
86%
B36 II 2+ goals
58%
B36 II 3+ goals
31%
Undrid 1+ goals
79%
Undrid 2+ goals
46%
Undrid 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

B36 II (draw refunded)
60%
Undrid (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B36 II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.68 · 105 matches

Undrid away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B36 II attack 1.85 + Undrid defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.97

Undrid attack 1.46 + B36 II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

B36 II scores more
47%
level
22%
Undrid scores more
31%

B36 II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "B36 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: B36 II 3–0 Undrid

B36 II beat Undrid 3-0 in 1. Deild on September 15, 2022.

The match was played at Gundadalur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.