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Undrid vs 07 Vestur II — 1. Deild 2019

Undrid
Undrid
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
07 Vestur II
07 Vestur II
4/23/20221. Deild1. Deild · Round 6Hoyvíksvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Undrid70%
×Draw18%
07 Vestur II11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Undrid
2.21
07 Vestur II
0.75

Undrid creates 195% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

creates per match

Undrid
1.93
07 Vestur II
0.43

allows per match

Undrid
1.07
07 Vestur II
2.50

finishing

Undrid+0.00on par
07 Vestur II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Undrid ↓

07 Vestur II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Undrid or draw
89%
Undrid or 07 Vestur II
82%
Draw or 07 Vestur II
30%

Winning margin

Undrid wins by 2+
46%
07 Vestur II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Undrid 1+ goals
89%
Undrid 2+ goals
65%
Undrid 3+ goals
38%
07 Vestur II 1+ goals
53%
07 Vestur II 2+ goals
17%
07 Vestur II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Undrid (draw refunded)
86%
07 Vestur II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Undrid at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

07 Vestur II away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Undrid attack 1.93 + 07 Vestur II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.21

07 Vestur II attack 0.43 + Undrid defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Undrid scores more
70%
level
18%
07 Vestur II scores more
11%

Undrid at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Undrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Undrid 1–1 07 Vestur II

Undrid and 07 Vestur II drew 1-1 in 1. Deild on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Hoyvíksvøllur in Hoyvík.