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07 Vestur II vs Undrid — 1. Deild 2019

07 Vestur II
07 Vestur II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Undrid
Undrid
8/13/20221. Deild1. Deild · Round 18á Dungasandi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

07 Vestur II26%
×Draw19%
Undrid54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

07 Vestur II
1.70
Undrid
2.48

Undrid creates 46% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

07 Vestur II
1.31
Undrid
1.46

allows per match

07 Vestur II
3.50
Undrid
2.08

finishing

07 Vestur II+0.00on par
Undrid+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

07 Vestur II ↓

Undrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

07 Vestur II or draw
46%
07 Vestur II or Undrid
81%
Draw or Undrid
74%

Winning margin

07 Vestur II wins by 2+
12%
Undrid wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

07 Vestur II 1+ goals
82%
07 Vestur II 2+ goals
51%
07 Vestur II 3+ goals
24%
Undrid 1+ goals
92%
Undrid 2+ goals
70%
Undrid 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

07 Vestur II (draw refunded)
33%
Undrid (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

07 Vestur II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.50 · 26 matches

Undrid away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

07 Vestur II attack 1.31 + Undrid defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.70

Undrid attack 1.46 + 07 Vestur II defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

07 Vestur II scores more
26%
level
19%
Undrid scores more
54%

Undrid at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Undrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 07 Vestur II vs Undrid

Undrid beat 07 Vestur II 4-1 in 1. Deild on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at á Dungasandi in Sørvágur, Vágar.