Unami 1–0 Palencia CF: Result & Stats

Unami

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Palencia CF

2/11/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 20Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Unami36%

×Draw29%

Palencia CF34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UnamiExpected goals in this matchPalencia CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.06

Unami

1.10

Palencia CF

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

1.00

creates per match

0.93

1.20

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Unami

1.00

Palencia CF

0.93

allows per match

Unami

1.20

Palencia CF

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unami+0.00on par

Palencia CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unami ↓

Palencia CF →

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Unami or draw

66%

Unami or Palencia CF

71%

Draw or Palencia CF

64%

Winning margin

Unami wins by 2+

15%

Palencia CF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Unami 1+ goals

67%

Unami 2+ goals

30%

Unami 3+ goals

10%

Palencia CF 1+ goals

65%

Palencia CF 2+ goals

29%

Palencia CF 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Unami (draw refunded)

51%

Palencia CF (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unami at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Palencia CF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unami attack 1.00 + Palencia CF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Palencia CF attack 0.93 + Unami defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Unami scores more

36%

level

29%

Palencia CF scores more

34%

Unami at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Unami will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff