Palencia CF 3–0 Unami: Result & Stats

Palencia CF

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Unami

10/9/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 5Estadio El Otero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Palencia CF67%

×Draw20%

Unami12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palencia CFExpected goals in this matchUnami

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.69

Palencia CF

1.97

Unami

0.69

Palencia CF creates 186% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

1.67

creates per match

0.33

1.04

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Palencia CF

1.67

Unami

0.33

allows per match

Palencia CF

1.04

Unami

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palencia CF+0.00on par

Unami+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palencia CF ↓

Unami →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Palencia CF or draw

88%

Palencia CF or Unami

80%

Draw or Unami

33%

Winning margin

Palencia CF wins by 2+

42%

Unami wins by 2+

Team goals

Palencia CF 1+ goals

86%

Palencia CF 2+ goals

58%

Palencia CF 3+ goals

31%

Unami 1+ goals

50%

Unami 2+ goals

15%

Unami 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Palencia CF (draw refunded)

85%

Unami (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Palencia CF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

Unami away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Palencia CF attack 1.67 + Unami defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.97

Unami attack 0.33 + Palencia CF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Palencia CF scores more

67%

level

20%

Unami scores more

12%

Palencia CF at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Palencia CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff