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Unami vs Mirandés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Unami
Unami
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mirandés II
Mirandés II
1/28/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 18Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Unami37%
×Draw28%
Mirandés II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unami
1.17
Mirandés II
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 112 away

creates per match

Unami
1.00
Mirandés II
1.04

allows per match

Unami
1.20
Mirandés II
1.34

finishing

Unami+0.00on par
Mirandés II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unami ↓

Mirandés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Unami or draw
65%
Unami or Mirandés II
72%
Draw or Mirandés II
63%

Winning margin

Unami wins by 2+
16%
Mirandés II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Unami 1+ goals
69%
Unami 2+ goals
33%
Unami 3+ goals
11%
Mirandés II 1+ goals
67%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
31%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Unami (draw refunded)
52%
Mirandés II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unami at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Mirandés II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unami attack 1.00 + Mirandés II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mirandés II attack 1.04 + Unami defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Unami scores more
37%
level
28%
Mirandés II scores more
35%

Unami at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Unami will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Unami 3–0 Mirandés II

Unami beat Mirandés II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Albuera in Segovia.