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Mirandés II vs Unami — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Mirandés II
Mirandés II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Unami
Unami
9/25/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 3Estadio Municipal de Ence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mirandés II65%
×Draw22%
Unami13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandés II
1.81
Unami
0.66

Mirandés II creates 174% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mirandés II
1.34
Unami
0.33

allows per match

Mirandés II
0.99
Unami
2.27

finishing

Mirandés II+0.00on par
Unami+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandés II ↓

Unami →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mirandés II or draw
87%
Mirandés II or Unami
78%
Draw or Unami
35%

Winning margin

Mirandés II wins by 2+
38%
Unami wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mirandés II 1+ goals
84%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
54%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
27%
Unami 1+ goals
48%
Unami 2+ goals
14%
Unami 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mirandés II (draw refunded)
83%
Unami (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandés II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Unami away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandés II attack 1.34 + Unami defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.81

Unami attack 0.33 + Mirandés II defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Mirandés II scores more
65%
level
22%
Unami scores more
13%

Mirandés II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mirandés II vs Unami

Mirandés II beat Unami 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ence in Miranda de Ebro.