Unami 1–1 Atlético Tordesillas: Result & Stats

Unami

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Tordesillas

3/25/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 26Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Unami32%

×Draw29%

Atlético Tordesillas39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UnamiExpected goals in this matchAtlético Tordesillas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.17

Unami

1.04

Atlético Tordesillas

1.17

Atlético Tordesillas creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 110 away

1.00

creates per match

1.13

1.20

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Unami

1.00

Atlético Tordesillas

1.13

allows per match

Unami

1.20

Atlético Tordesillas

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unami+0.00on par

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unami ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Unami or draw

61%

Unami or Atlético Tordesillas

71%

Draw or Atlético Tordesillas

68%

Winning margin

Unami wins by 2+

12%

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Unami 1+ goals

65%

Unami 2+ goals

28%

Unami 3+ goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals

69%

Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals

33%

Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Unami (draw refunded)

45%

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unami at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unami attack 1.00 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Unami defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Unami scores more

32%

level

29%

Atlético Tordesillas scores more

39%

Atlético Tordesillas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff