Atlético Tordesillas 3–0 Unami: Result & Stats

Atlético Tordesillas

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Unami

11/27/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 11Estadio Las Salinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atlético Tordesillas70%

×Draw21%

Unami10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético TordesillasExpected goals in this matchUnami

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.51

Atlético Tordesillas

1.84

Unami

0.51

Atlético Tordesillas creates 261% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 15 away

1.41

creates per match

0.33

0.69

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Atlético Tordesillas

1.41

Unami

0.33

allows per match

Atlético Tordesillas

0.69

Unami

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Unami+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tordesillas ↓

Unami →

0–010%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–018%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Tordesillas or draw

90%

Atlético Tordesillas or Unami

79%

Draw or Unami

30%

Winning margin

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+

42%

Unami wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals

84%

Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals

55%

Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals

28%

Unami 1+ goals

40%

Unami 2+ goals

Unami 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)

88%

Unami (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tordesillas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

Unami away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.41 + Unami defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.84

Unami attack 0.33 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Atlético Tordesillas scores more

70%

level

21%

Unami scores more

10%

Atlético Tordesillas at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Tordesillas vs Unami

Atlético Tordesillas beat Unami 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Las Salinas in Tordesillas.

Atlético Tordesillas vs Unami — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Tordesillas vs Unami