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UNA Strassen vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg — National Division 2018

UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8/25/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 4Complexe Sportif Jean Wirtz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

UNA Strassen41%
×Draw24%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNA Strassen
1.60
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

UNA Strassen
1.85
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.62

allows per match

UNA Strassen
1.31
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.35

finishing

UNA Strassen+0.00on par
Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNA Strassen ↓

Racing FC Union Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

UNA Strassen or draw
65%
UNA Strassen or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
76%
Draw or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
59%

Winning margin

UNA Strassen wins by 2+
20%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

UNA Strassen 1+ goals
80%
UNA Strassen 2+ goals
47%
UNA Strassen 3+ goals
22%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
77%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
43%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

UNA Strassen (draw refunded)
54%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNA Strassen at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.35 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNA Strassen attack 1.85 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.60

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.62 + UNA Strassen defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

UNA Strassen scores more
41%
level
24%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
35%

UNA Strassen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UNA Strassen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: UNA Strassen 0–0 Racing FC Union Luxembourg

UNA Strassen and Racing FC Union Luxembourg drew 0-0 in National Division on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Jean Wirtz in Strossen.