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Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs UNA Strassen — National Division 2018

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen
2/22/2025National DivisionNational Division · Round 18Stade Achille Hammerel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg40%
×Draw25%
UNA Strassen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.52
UNA Strassen
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 112 away

creates per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.64
UNA Strassen
1.43

allows per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.38
UNA Strassen
1.41

finishing

Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par
UNA Strassen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing FC Union Luxembourg ↓

UNA Strassen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Racing FC Union Luxembourg or draw
65%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg or UNA Strassen
75%
Draw or UNA Strassen
60%

Winning margin

Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
20%
UNA Strassen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
78%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
45%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
20%
UNA Strassen 1+ goals
75%
UNA Strassen 2+ goals
41%
UNA Strassen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
54%
UNA Strassen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.38 · 112 matches

UNA Strassen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.64 + UNA Strassen defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

UNA Strassen attack 1.43 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
40%
level
25%
UNA Strassen scores more
35%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 0 – 1 UNA Strassen

UNA Strassen beat Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1-0 in National Division on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Achille Hammerel in Luxembourg.