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UNA Strassen vs Progres Niederkorn — National Division 2018

UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
9/29/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 9Complexe Sportif Jean Wirtz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

UNA Strassen40%
×Draw24%
Progres Niederkorn36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNA Strassen
1.54
Progres Niederkorn
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 108 away

creates per match

UNA Strassen
1.83
Progres Niederkorn
1.64

allows per match

UNA Strassen
1.27
Progres Niederkorn
1.25

finishing

UNA Strassen+0.00on par
Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNA Strassen ↓

Progres Niederkorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

UNA Strassen or draw
64%
UNA Strassen or Progres Niederkorn
76%
Draw or Progres Niederkorn
60%

Winning margin

UNA Strassen wins by 2+
19%
Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

UNA Strassen 1+ goals
79%
UNA Strassen 2+ goals
45%
UNA Strassen 3+ goals
20%
Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
77%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
43%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

UNA Strassen (draw refunded)
52%
Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNA Strassen at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.27 · 108 matches

Progres Niederkorn away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.25 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNA Strassen attack 1.83 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Progres Niederkorn attack 1.64 + UNA Strassen defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

UNA Strassen scores more
40%
level
24%
Progres Niederkorn scores more
36%

UNA Strassen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "UNA Strassen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UNA Strassen vs Progres Niederkorn

UNA Strassen and Progres Niederkorn drew 1-1 in National Division on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Jean Wirtz in Strossen.