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Progres Niederkorn vs UNA Strassen — National Division 2018

Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen
9/13/2025National DivisionNational Division · Round 6Stade Jos Haupert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Progres Niederkorn49%
×Draw23%
UNA Strassen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progres Niederkorn
1.77
UNA Strassen
1.27

Progres Niederkorn creates 39% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 112 away

creates per match

Progres Niederkorn
2.12
UNA Strassen
1.43

allows per match

Progres Niederkorn
1.10
UNA Strassen
1.41

finishing

Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par
UNA Strassen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progres Niederkorn ↓

UNA Strassen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Progres Niederkorn or draw
72%
Progres Niederkorn or UNA Strassen
77%
Draw or UNA Strassen
51%

Winning margin

Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
27%
UNA Strassen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
83%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
53%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
26%
UNA Strassen 1+ goals
72%
UNA Strassen 2+ goals
36%
UNA Strassen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
64%
UNA Strassen (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progres Niederkorn at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

UNA Strassen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progres Niederkorn attack 2.12 + UNA Strassen defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

UNA Strassen attack 1.43 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Progres Niederkorn scores more
49%
level
23%
UNA Strassen scores more
28%

Progres Niederkorn at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progres Niederkorn vs UNA Strassen

UNA Strassen beat Progres Niederkorn 1-0 in National Division on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Jos Haupert.