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UNA Strassen vs Marisca Mersch — National Division 2018

UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
11/12/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 12Complexe Sportif Jean Wirtz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

UNA Strassen56%
×Draw22%
Marisca Mersch23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNA Strassen
1.99
Marisca Mersch
1.19

UNA Strassen creates 67% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 15 away

creates per match

UNA Strassen
1.85
Marisca Mersch
1.07

allows per match

UNA Strassen
1.31
Marisca Mersch
2.13

finishing

UNA Strassen+0.00on par
Marisca Mersch+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNA Strassen ↓

Marisca Mersch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

UNA Strassen or draw
77%
UNA Strassen or Marisca Mersch
78%
Draw or Marisca Mersch
44%

Winning margin

UNA Strassen wins by 2+
33%
Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UNA Strassen 1+ goals
86%
UNA Strassen 2+ goals
59%
UNA Strassen 3+ goals
32%
Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
70%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
33%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

UNA Strassen (draw refunded)
71%
Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNA Strassen at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

Marisca Mersch away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNA Strassen attack 1.85 + Marisca Mersch defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.99

Marisca Mersch attack 1.07 + UNA Strassen defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

UNA Strassen scores more
56%
level
22%
Marisca Mersch scores more
23%

UNA Strassen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "UNA Strassen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: UNA Strassen 1–1 Marisca Mersch

UNA Strassen and Marisca Mersch drew 1-1 in National Division on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Jean Wirtz in Strossen.