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Marisca Mersch vs UNA Strassen — National Division 2018

Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen
4/28/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 26Stade Schintgespesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marisca Mersch34%
×Draw23%
UNA Strassen43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marisca Mersch
1.50
UNA Strassen
1.71

UNA Strassen creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 112 away

creates per match

Marisca Mersch
1.60
UNA Strassen
1.43

allows per match

Marisca Mersch
2.00
UNA Strassen
1.41

finishing

Marisca Mersch+0.00on par
UNA Strassen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marisca Mersch ↓

UNA Strassen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Marisca Mersch or draw
57%
Marisca Mersch or UNA Strassen
77%
Draw or UNA Strassen
66%

Winning margin

Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
16%
UNA Strassen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
78%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
44%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
19%
UNA Strassen 1+ goals
82%
UNA Strassen 2+ goals
51%
UNA Strassen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
44%
UNA Strassen (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marisca Mersch at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

UNA Strassen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marisca Mersch attack 1.60 + UNA Strassen defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

UNA Strassen attack 1.43 + Marisca Mersch defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Marisca Mersch scores more
34%
level
23%
UNA Strassen scores more
43%

UNA Strassen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UNA Strassen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Marisca Mersch 2–3 UNA Strassen

UNA Strassen beat Marisca Mersch 3-2 in National Division on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Schintgespesch in Mersch.