UNA Strassen 3–1 Fola Esch: Result & Stats

UNA Strassen

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Fola Esch

4/21/2024

National Division · Round 25Complexe Sportif Jean Wirtz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

UNA Strassen49%

×Draw22%

Fola Esch29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UNA StrassenExpected goals in this matchFola Esch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.48

UNA Strassen

1.96

Fola Esch

1.48

UNA Strassen creates 32% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 97 away

1.85

creates per match

1.65

1.31

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

UNA Strassen

1.85

Fola Esch

1.65

allows per match

UNA Strassen

1.31

Fola Esch

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UNA Strassen+0.00on par

Fola Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNA Strassen ↓

Fola Esch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

UNA Strassen or draw

71%

UNA Strassen or Fola Esch

78%

Draw or Fola Esch

51%

Winning margin

UNA Strassen wins by 2+

28%

Fola Esch wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

UNA Strassen 1+ goals

86%

UNA Strassen 2+ goals

58%

UNA Strassen 3+ goals

31%

Fola Esch 1+ goals

77%

Fola Esch 2+ goals

43%

Fola Esch 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

UNA Strassen (draw refunded)

62%

Fola Esch (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNA Strassen at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

Fola Esch away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.06 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNA Strassen attack 1.85 + Fola Esch defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.96

Fola Esch attack 1.65 + UNA Strassen defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

UNA Strassen scores more

49%

level

22%

Fola Esch scores more

29%

UNA Strassen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "UNA Strassen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff