Fola Esch 1–1 UNA Strassen: Result & Stats

Fola Esch

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UNA Strassen

11/5/2023

National Division · Round 11Stade Émile Mayrisch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Fola Esch44%

×Draw24%

UNA Strassen32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fola EschExpected goals in this matchUNA Strassen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.38

Fola Esch

1.67

UNA Strassen

1.38

Fola Esch creates 21% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 112 away

1.94

creates per match

1.43

1.32

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Fola Esch

1.94

UNA Strassen

1.43

allows per match

Fola Esch

1.32

UNA Strassen

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fola Esch+0.00on par

UNA Strassen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fola Esch ↓

UNA Strassen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fola Esch or draw

68%

Fola Esch or UNA Strassen

76%

Draw or UNA Strassen

56%

Winning margin

Fola Esch wins by 2+

23%

UNA Strassen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fola Esch 1+ goals

81%

Fola Esch 2+ goals

50%

Fola Esch 3+ goals

23%

UNA Strassen 1+ goals

75%

UNA Strassen 2+ goals

40%

UNA Strassen 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fola Esch (draw refunded)

58%

UNA Strassen (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fola Esch at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.32 · 96 matches

UNA Strassen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fola Esch attack 1.94 + UNA Strassen defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

UNA Strassen attack 1.43 + Fola Esch defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fola Esch scores more

44%

level

24%

UNA Strassen scores more

32%

Fola Esch at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fola Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff