UMS de Loum 1–0 Les Astres: Result & Stats

UMS de Loum

FT

1 – 0

Les Astres

4/14/2019

Elite One · Round 15Stade Municipal de Loum (Loum)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

UMS de Loum41%

×Draw31%

Les Astres28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UMS de LoumExpected goals in this matchLes Astres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.85

UMS de Loum

1.09

Les Astres

0.85

UMS de Loum creates 28% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 75 away

0.87

creates per match

1.03

0.67

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

UMS de Loum

0.87

Les Astres

1.03

allows per match

UMS de Loum

0.67

Les Astres

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMS de Loum ↓

Les Astres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

UMS de Loum or draw

72%

UMS de Loum or Les Astres

69%

Draw or Les Astres

59%

Winning margin

UMS de Loum wins by 2+

17%

Les Astres wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

UMS de Loum 1+ goals

66%

UMS de Loum 2+ goals

30%

UMS de Loum 3+ goals

10%

Les Astres 1+ goals

57%

Les Astres 2+ goals

21%

Les Astres 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)

59%

Les Astres (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMS de Loum at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.67 · 67 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMS de Loum attack 0.87 + Les Astres defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

Les Astres attack 1.03 + UMS de Loum defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

UMS de Loum scores more

41%

level

31%

Les Astres scores more

28%

UMS de Loum at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff