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Les Astres vs UMS de Loum — Elite One 2019

Les Astres
Les Astres
FT
1 – 1
UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum
4/17/2021Elite OneElite One · Round 7Stade de la Réunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Les Astres38%
×Draw30%
UMS de Loum32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Les Astres
1.10
UMS de Loum
0.99

Les Astres creates 11% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 66 away

creates per match

Les Astres
1.31
UMS de Loum
0.92

allows per match

Les Astres
1.06
UMS de Loum
0.89

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par
UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

UMS de Loum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw
68%
Les Astres or UMS de Loum
70%
Draw or UMS de Loum
62%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+
15%
UMS de Loum wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals
67%
Les Astres 2+ goals
30%
Les Astres 3+ goals
10%
UMS de Loum 1+ goals
63%
UMS de Loum 2+ goals
26%
UMS de Loum 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)
54%
UMS de Loum (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 72 matches

UMS de Loum away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.31 + UMS de Loum defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

UMS de Loum attack 0.92 + Les Astres defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Les Astres scores more
38%
level
30%
UMS de Loum scores more
32%

Les Astres at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Les Astres 1–1 UMS de Loum

Les Astres and UMS de Loum drew 1-1 in Elite One on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de la Réunification in Douala.