UMS de Loum 0–0 Jeunes Fauves: Result & Stats

UMS de Loum

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jeunes Fauves

11/6/2023

Elite One · Round 7Stade de Bonamoussadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

UMS de Loum49%

×Draw28%

Jeunes Fauves23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UMS de LoumExpected goals in this matchJeunes Fauves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.82

UMS de Loum

1.34

Jeunes Fauves

0.82

UMS de Loum creates 63% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 47 away

0.87

creates per match

0.98

0.67

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

UMS de Loum

0.87

Jeunes Fauves

0.98

allows per match

UMS de Loum

0.67

Jeunes Fauves

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMS de Loum ↓

Jeunes Fauves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

UMS de Loum or draw

77%

UMS de Loum or Jeunes Fauves

72%

Draw or Jeunes Fauves

51%

Winning margin

UMS de Loum wins by 2+

23%

Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

UMS de Loum 1+ goals

74%

UMS de Loum 2+ goals

39%

UMS de Loum 3+ goals

15%

Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals

56%

Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals

20%

Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)

68%

Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMS de Loum at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.67 · 67 matches

Jeunes Fauves away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMS de Loum attack 0.87 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.34

Jeunes Fauves attack 0.98 + UMS de Loum defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

UMS de Loum scores more

49%

level

28%

Jeunes Fauves scores more

23%

UMS de Loum at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff