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Jeunes Fauves vs UMS de Loum — Elite One 2019

Jeunes Fauves
Jeunes Fauves
FT
1 – 0
UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum
4/8/2024Elite OneElite One · Relegation Round - 3Stade Olembe Annexe A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Jeunes Fauves32%
×Draw30%
UMS de Loum38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunes Fauves
0.99
UMS de Loum
1.09

UMS de Loum creates 10% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 66 away

creates per match

Jeunes Fauves
1.08
UMS de Loum
0.92

allows per match

Jeunes Fauves
1.27
UMS de Loum
0.89

finishing

Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par
UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunes Fauves ↓

UMS de Loum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jeunes Fauves or draw
62%
Jeunes Fauves or UMS de Loum
70%
Draw or UMS de Loum
68%

Winning margin

Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+
12%
UMS de Loum wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals
63%
Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals
26%
Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals
8%
UMS de Loum 1+ goals
66%
UMS de Loum 2+ goals
30%
UMS de Loum 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)
46%
UMS de Loum (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunes Fauves at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

UMS de Loum away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunes Fauves attack 1.08 + UMS de Loum defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

UMS de Loum attack 0.92 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jeunes Fauves scores more
32%
level
30%
UMS de Loum scores more
38%

UMS de Loum at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Jeunes Fauves 1–0 UMS de Loum

Jeunes Fauves beat UMS de Loum 1-0 in Elite One on April 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Olembe Annexe A in Yaoundé.