UMS de Loum 1–0 Fortuna Mfou: Result & Stats

UMS de Loum

FT

1 – 0

Fortuna Mfou

3/24/2019

Elite One · Round 10Stade Municipal de Loum (Loum)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

UMS de Loum41%

×Draw30%

Fortuna Mfou28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UMS de LoumExpected goals in this matchFortuna Mfou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.88

UMS de Loum

1.13

Fortuna Mfou

0.88

UMS de Loum creates 28% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 96 away

0.87

creates per match

1.09

0.67

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

UMS de Loum

0.87

Fortuna Mfou

1.09

allows per match

UMS de Loum

0.67

Fortuna Mfou

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMS de Loum ↓

Fortuna Mfou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

UMS de Loum or draw

72%

UMS de Loum or Fortuna Mfou

70%

Draw or Fortuna Mfou

59%

Winning margin

UMS de Loum wins by 2+

17%

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

UMS de Loum 1+ goals

68%

UMS de Loum 2+ goals

31%

UMS de Loum 3+ goals

11%

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals

59%

Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals

22%

Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)

59%

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMS de Loum at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.67 · 67 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMS de Loum attack 0.87 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.13

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + UMS de Loum defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

UMS de Loum scores more

41%

level

30%

Fortuna Mfou scores more

28%

UMS de Loum at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff