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Fortuna Mfou vs UMS de Loum — Elite One 2019

Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
FT
1 – 1
UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum
2/3/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 1Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo (Yaoundé)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Fortuna Mfou35%
×Draw30%
UMS de Loum35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Mfou
1.08
UMS de Loum
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 66 away

creates per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.28
UMS de Loum
0.92

allows per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.23
UMS de Loum
0.89

finishing

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par
UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Mfou ↓

UMS de Loum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fortuna Mfou or draw
65%
Fortuna Mfou or UMS de Loum
70%
Draw or UMS de Loum
65%

Winning margin

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
14%
UMS de Loum wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
66%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
29%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
10%
UMS de Loum 1+ goals
66%
UMS de Loum 2+ goals
29%
UMS de Loum 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
50%
UMS de Loum (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Mfou at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 97 matches

UMS de Loum away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.28 + UMS de Loum defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.08

UMS de Loum attack 0.92 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Fortuna Mfou scores more
35%
level
30%
UMS de Loum scores more
35%

Fortuna Mfou at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Fortuna Mfou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Fortuna Mfou 1–1 UMS de Loum

Fortuna Mfou and UMS de Loum drew 1-1 in Elite One on February 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo (Yaoundé).