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UMS de Loum vs Avion Academy — Elite One 2019

UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
12/6/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 10Stade de Bonamoussadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

UMS de Loum43%
×Draw32%
Avion Academy25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UMS de Loum
1.06
Avion Academy
0.74

UMS de Loum creates 43% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 67 away

creates per match

UMS de Loum
0.87
Avion Academy
0.82

allows per match

UMS de Loum
0.67
Avion Academy
1.25

finishing

UMS de Loum+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMS de Loum ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

UMS de Loum or draw
75%
UMS de Loum or Avion Academy
68%
Draw or Avion Academy
57%

Winning margin

UMS de Loum wins by 2+
17%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

UMS de Loum 1+ goals
65%
UMS de Loum 2+ goals
29%
UMS de Loum 3+ goals
9%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
52%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
17%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)
63%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMS de Loum at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.67 · 67 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMS de Loum attack 0.87 + Avion Academy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Avion Academy attack 0.82 + UMS de Loum defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

UMS de Loum scores more
43%
level
32%
Avion Academy scores more
25%

UMS de Loum at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: UMS de Loum 0–0 Avion Academy

UMS de Loum and Avion Academy drew 0-0 in Elite One on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Bonamoussadi in Douala.