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Avion Academy vs UMS de Loum — Elite One 2019

Avion Academy
Avion Academy
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum
1/10/2024Elite OneElite One · Round 14Stade Annexe de la Reunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Avion Academy34%
×Draw31%
UMS de Loum34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avion Academy
0.98
UMS de Loum
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 66 away

creates per match

Avion Academy
1.06
UMS de Loum
0.92

allows per match

Avion Academy
1.03
UMS de Loum
0.89

finishing

Avion Academy+0.00on par
UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avion Academy ↓

UMS de Loum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Avion Academy or draw
66%
Avion Academy or UMS de Loum
69%
Draw or UMS de Loum
66%

Winning margin

Avion Academy wins by 2+
13%
UMS de Loum wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Avion Academy 1+ goals
62%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
26%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
8%
UMS de Loum 1+ goals
62%
UMS de Loum 2+ goals
26%
UMS de Loum 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Avion Academy (draw refunded)
50%
UMS de Loum (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avion Academy at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.03 · 63 matches

UMS de Loum away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avion Academy attack 1.06 + UMS de Loum defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

UMS de Loum attack 0.92 + Avion Academy defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Avion Academy scores more
34%
level
31%
UMS de Loum scores more
34%

Avion Academy at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Avion Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Avion Academy 0–2 UMS de Loum

UMS de Loum beat Avion Academy 2-0 in Elite One on January 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Annexe de la Reunification in Douala.