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Ümraniyespor vs Bodrum FK — 1. Lig 2018

Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bodrum FK
Bodrum FK
2/3/20241. Lig1. Lig · Round 21Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ümraniyespor40%
×Draw27%
Bodrum FK33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ümraniyespor
1.31
Bodrum FK
1.17

Ümraniyespor creates 12% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 57 away

creates per match

Ümraniyespor
1.55
Bodrum FK
1.28

allows per match

Ümraniyespor
1.06
Bodrum FK
1.07

finishing

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par
Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ümraniyespor ↓

Bodrum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ümraniyespor or draw
67%
Ümraniyespor or Bodrum FK
73%
Draw or Bodrum FK
60%

Winning margin

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+
18%
Bodrum FK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals
73%
Ümraniyespor 2+ goals
38%
Ümraniyespor 3+ goals
14%
Bodrum FK 1+ goals
69%
Bodrum FK 2+ goals
33%
Bodrum FK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)
55%
Bodrum FK (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ümraniyespor at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.06 · 125 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ümraniyespor attack 1.55 + Bodrum FK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bodrum FK attack 1.28 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ümraniyespor scores more
40%
level
27%
Bodrum FK scores more
33%

Ümraniyespor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ümraniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Ümraniyespor 1–2 Bodrum FK

Bodrum FK beat Ümraniyespor 2-1 in 1. Lig on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu in İstanbul.