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Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor — 1. Lig 2018

Bodrum FK
Bodrum FK
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor
4/3/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 33Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Bodrum FK54%
×Draw25%
Ümraniyespor21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodrum FK
1.63
Ümraniyespor
0.91

Bodrum FK creates 79% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 125 away

creates per match

Bodrum FK
1.83
Ümraniyespor
1.16

allows per match

Bodrum FK
0.66
Ümraniyespor
1.42

finishing

Bodrum FK+0.00on par
Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodrum FK ↓

Ümraniyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bodrum FK or draw
79%
Bodrum FK or Ümraniyespor
75%
Draw or Ümraniyespor
46%

Winning margin

Bodrum FK wins by 2+
29%
Ümraniyespor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bodrum FK 1+ goals
80%
Bodrum FK 2+ goals
48%
Bodrum FK 3+ goals
22%
Ümraniyespor 1+ goals
60%
Ümraniyespor 2+ goals
23%
Ümraniyespor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)
72%
Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodrum FK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.66 · 59 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.42 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodrum FK attack 1.83 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ümraniyespor attack 1.16 + Bodrum FK defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bodrum FK scores more
54%
level
25%
Ümraniyespor scores more
21%

Bodrum FK at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor

Bodrum FK beat Ümraniyespor 1-0 in 1. Lig on April 3, 2026.

The match was played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu in Bodrum.