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Umm Mughad vs Al Rabta Kosti — Sudani Premier League 2025

Umm Mughad
Umm Mughad
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
2/4/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Umm Mughad49%
×Draw28%
Al Rabta Kosti24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umm Mughad
1.38
Al Rabta Kosti
0.88

Umm Mughad creates 57% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Umm Mughad
1.67
Al Rabta Kosti
0.67

allows per match

Umm Mughad
1.08
Al Rabta Kosti
1.08

finishing

Umm Mughad+0.00on par
Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umm Mughad ↓

Al Rabta Kosti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Umm Mughad or draw
76%
Umm Mughad or Al Rabta Kosti
72%
Draw or Al Rabta Kosti
51%

Winning margin

Umm Mughad wins by 2+
23%
Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Umm Mughad 1+ goals
75%
Umm Mughad 2+ goals
40%
Umm Mughad 3+ goals
16%
Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
59%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
22%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Umm Mughad (draw refunded)
67%
Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umm Mughad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Al Rabta Kosti away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umm Mughad attack 1.67 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.67 + Umm Mughad defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Umm Mughad scores more
49%
level
28%
Al Rabta Kosti scores more
24%

Umm Mughad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Umm Mughad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Umm Mughad 2–0 Al Rabta Kosti

Umm Mughad beat Al Rabta Kosti 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 4, 2026.