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Al Rabta Kosti vs Umm Mughad — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Umm Mughad
Umm Mughad
1/15/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Rabta Kosti35%
×Draw30%
Umm Mughad35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Rabta Kosti
1.06
Umm Mughad
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Al Rabta Kosti
0.85
Umm Mughad
1.18

allows per match

Al Rabta Kosti
0.92
Umm Mughad
1.27

finishing

Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par
Umm Mughad+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Rabta Kosti ↓

Umm Mughad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Rabta Kosti or draw
65%
Al Rabta Kosti or Umm Mughad
70%
Draw or Umm Mughad
65%

Winning margin

Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
14%
Umm Mughad wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
65%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
29%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
9%
Umm Mughad 1+ goals
65%
Umm Mughad 2+ goals
28%
Umm Mughad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
50%
Umm Mughad (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Rabta Kosti at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Umm Mughad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.85 + Umm Mughad defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Umm Mughad attack 1.18 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Al Rabta Kosti scores more
35%
level
30%
Umm Mughad scores more
35%

Al Rabta Kosti at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Al Rabta Kosti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Rabta Kosti vs Umm Mughad

Umm Mughad beat Al Rabta Kosti 3-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 15, 2026.