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Umm Mughad vs Al Ahli Wad Medani — Sudani Premier League 2025

Umm Mughad
Umm Mughad
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1/11/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Umm Mughad35%
×Draw26%
Al Ahli Wad Medani39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umm Mughad
1.26
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Umm Mughad
1.67
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.64

allows per match

Umm Mughad
1.08
Al Ahli Wad Medani
0.86

finishing

Umm Mughad+0.00on par
Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umm Mughad ↓

Al Ahli Wad Medani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Umm Mughad or draw
61%
Umm Mughad or Al Ahli Wad Medani
74%
Draw or Al Ahli Wad Medani
65%

Winning margin

Umm Mughad wins by 2+
15%
Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Umm Mughad 1+ goals
72%
Umm Mughad 2+ goals
36%
Umm Mughad 3+ goals
13%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals
74%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals
39%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Umm Mughad (draw refunded)
47%
Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umm Mughad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umm Mughad attack 1.67 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.26

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.64 + Umm Mughad defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Umm Mughad scores more
35%
level
26%
Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more
39%

Al Ahli Wad Medani at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Ahli Wad Medani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Umm Mughad vs Al Ahli Wad Medani

Al Ahli Wad Medani beat Umm Mughad 3-1 in Sudani Premier League on January 11, 2026.