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Al Ahli Wad Medani vs Umm Mughad — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al Ahli Wad Medani
FT
2 – 1
Umm Mughad
Umm Mughad
1/31/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani50%
×Draw25%
Umm Mughad25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.56
Umm Mughad
1.01

Al Ahli Wad Medani creates 54% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.84
Umm Mughad
1.18

allows per match

Al Ahli Wad Medani
0.84
Umm Mughad
1.27

finishing

Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par
Umm Mughad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Wad Medani ↓

Umm Mughad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Ahli Wad Medani or draw
75%
Al Ahli Wad Medani or Umm Mughad
75%
Draw or Umm Mughad
50%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+
26%
Umm Mughad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals
79%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals
46%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals
21%
Umm Mughad 1+ goals
64%
Umm Mughad 2+ goals
27%
Umm Mughad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)
67%
Umm Mughad (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Wad Medani at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Umm Mughad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.84 + Umm Mughad defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.56

Umm Mughad attack 1.18 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more
50%
level
25%
Umm Mughad scores more
25%

Al Ahli Wad Medani at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Ahli Wad Medani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Ahli Wad Medani 2–1 Umm Mughad

Al Ahli Wad Medani beat Umm Mughad 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on January 31, 2026.