Umm Mughad 2–2 Al Ahli Khartoum: Result & Stats

Umm Mughad

FT

2 – 2

Al Ahli Khartoum

1/20/2026

Sudani Premier League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Umm Mughad55%

×Draw25%

Al Ahli Khartoum20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Umm MughadExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Khartoum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.89

Umm Mughad

1.64

Al Ahli Khartoum

0.89

Umm Mughad creates 84% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.67

creates per match

0.70

1.08

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Umm Mughad

1.67

Al Ahli Khartoum

0.70

allows per match

Umm Mughad

1.08

Al Ahli Khartoum

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Umm Mughad+0.00on par

Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umm Mughad ↓

Al Ahli Khartoum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Umm Mughad or draw

80%

Umm Mughad or Al Ahli Khartoum

75%

Draw or Al Ahli Khartoum

45%

Winning margin

Umm Mughad wins by 2+

30%

Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Umm Mughad 1+ goals

81%

Umm Mughad 2+ goals

49%

Umm Mughad 3+ goals

23%

Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals

59%

Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals

22%

Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Umm Mughad (draw refunded)

73%

Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umm Mughad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Al Ahli Khartoum away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umm Mughad attack 1.67 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 0.70 + Umm Mughad defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Umm Mughad scores more

55%

level

25%

Al Ahli Khartoum scores more

20%

Umm Mughad at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Umm Mughad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff