Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Ahli Khartoum vs Umm Mughad — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Ahli Khartoum
Al Ahli Khartoum
FT
0 – 2
Umm Mughad
Umm Mughad
2/9/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al Ahli Khartoum31%
×Draw27%
Umm Mughad42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.14
Umm Mughad
1.37

Umm Mughad creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.00
Umm Mughad
1.18

allows per match

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.56
Umm Mughad
1.27

finishing

Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par
Umm Mughad+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Khartoum ↓

Umm Mughad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Ahli Khartoum or draw
58%
Al Ahli Khartoum or Umm Mughad
73%
Draw or Umm Mughad
69%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+
13%
Umm Mughad wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals
68%
Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals
32%
Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals
11%
Umm Mughad 1+ goals
75%
Umm Mughad 2+ goals
40%
Umm Mughad 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)
43%
Umm Mughad (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Khartoum at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Umm Mughad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 1.00 + Umm Mughad defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Umm Mughad attack 1.18 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Ahli Khartoum scores more
31%
level
27%
Umm Mughad scores more
42%

Umm Mughad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Umm Mughad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Ahli Khartoum 0–2 Umm Mughad

Umm Mughad beat Al Ahli Khartoum 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 9, 2026.