UMECIT 3–0 Deportivo Universitario: Result & Stats

UMECIT

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Universitario

A. Palmezano 79'

C. Moran 55'

A. Edwards 40'

2/28/2026

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

UMECIT43%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Universitario29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UMECITExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Universitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.99

UMECIT

1.28

Deportivo Universitario

0.99

UMECIT creates 29% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 129 away

1.23

creates per match

1.01

0.98

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

UMECIT

1.23

Deportivo Universitario

1.01

allows per match

UMECIT

0.98

Deportivo Universitario

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UMECIT+0.00on par

Deportivo Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMECIT ↓

Deportivo Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

UMECIT or draw

71%

UMECIT or Deportivo Universitario

72%

Draw or Deportivo Universitario

57%

Winning margin

UMECIT wins by 2+

19%

Deportivo Universitario wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

UMECIT 1+ goals

72%

UMECIT 2+ goals

37%

UMECIT 3+ goals

14%

Deportivo Universitario 1+ goals

63%

Deportivo Universitario 2+ goals

26%

Deportivo Universitario 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

UMECIT (draw refunded)

60%

Deportivo Universitario (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMECIT at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

Deportivo Universitario away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.33 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMECIT attack 1.23 + Deportivo Universitario defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.28

Deportivo Universitario attack 1.01 + UMECIT defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

UMECIT scores more

43%

level

28%

Deportivo Universitario scores more

29%

UMECIT at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UMECIT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

19'

32'

33'

40'

46'

J. Barrera← J. Simons

46'

O. Pinzon← E. Bolanos

46'

A. McKenzie← E. Giron

55'

65'

66'

68'

79'

83'

M. Vergara← B. Wittle

90+4'

A. McKenzie

UMECIT

Deportivo

1

2

6

16

4

▼

Dean

14

▼

Giron

17

▼

Wittle

24

Rangel

9

▼

Bolanos

19

▼

21

30

3

22

⚽

27

62

6

17

⚽

Edwards

21

Almanza

78

▼

Vasquez

7

Peralta

48

⚽

Moran

66'▲E. Gomez←▼J. Vasquez

UMECIT substitutes

1Almengor10Gomez8Batista9Murillo14Ford46Lopez11Rodriguez19Saldana80Delgado

46'▲J. Barrera←▼J. Simons

46'▲O. Pinzon←▼E. Bolanos

46'▲A. McKenzie←▼E. Giron

65'▲J. Betegon←▼L. Dean

83'▲M. Vergara←▼B. Wittle

Deportivo Universitario substitutes

12Cruz25Ampudia7Barrera39Vergara47Yerena50Pinzon10McKenzie22Reina35Betegon

Match Recap: UMECIT vs Deportivo Universitario

UMECIT beat Deportivo Universitario 3-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on February 28, 2026.

Goals: A. Edwards (40'), C. Moran (55'), A. Palmezano (79').

UMECIT vs Deportivo Universitario — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: UMECIT vs Deportivo Universitario