Deportivo Universitario 2–2 UMECIT: Result & Stats

Deportivo Universitario

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

UMECIT

J. Simons 90'

J. Tobon 43'

E. Japa 81'

J. Gonzalez 23'

2/8/2025

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 4Estadio Universidad Latina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Deportivo Universitario39%

×Draw28%

UMECIT32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchUMECIT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.07

Deportivo Universitario

1.21

UMECIT

1.07

Deportivo Universitario creates 13% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 57 away

1.15

creates per match

0.88

1.27

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Deportivo Universitario

1.15

UMECIT

0.88

allows per match

Deportivo Universitario

1.27

UMECIT

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Universitario+0.00on par

UMECIT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Universitario ↓

UMECIT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Universitario or draw

68%

Deportivo Universitario or UMECIT

72%

Draw or UMECIT

61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Universitario wins by 2+

17%

UMECIT wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Universitario 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Universitario 2+ goals

34%

Deportivo Universitario 3+ goals

12%

UMECIT 1+ goals

66%

UMECIT 2+ goals

29%

UMECIT 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Universitario (draw refunded)

55%

UMECIT (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Universitario at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 128 matches

UMECIT away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Universitario attack 1.15 + UMECIT defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

UMECIT attack 0.88 + Deportivo Universitario defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Universitario scores more

39%

level

28%

UMECIT scores more

32%

Deportivo Universitario at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

32'

35'

43'

46'

S. Cunningham← J. Rivera

46'

E. Japa← J. Catuy

55'

L. Choy

61'

J. Clarke← R. Rangel

61'

N. Espinoza← E. Gomez

61'

J. Rodriguez← J. Gonzalez

66'

U. Maltez← L. Dean

66'

R. Dinolis← A. Edwards

75'

81'

82'

85'

89'

B. Walters← E. Machacen

90+1'

J. Rodriguez

90+7'

M. Gamboa

90'

J. Simons

Deportivo

UMECIT

12

Dimas

22

Palmezano

4

Delgado

23

▼

Garcia

26

Araya

7

⚽

▼

Gonzalez

10

▼

Avila

5

Choy

11

▼

Rivera

90

▼

9

1

26

23

4

▼

Dean

5

⚽

Tobon

14

▼

Machacen

19

⚽

Simons

6

Villarrea

27

▼

Gomez

24

▼

Rangel

17

▼

Edwards

Manager: Á. Sánchez

61'▲J. Clarke←▼R. Rangel

61'▲N. Espinoza←▼E. Gomez

66'▲U. Maltez←▼L. Dean

66'▲R. Dinolis←▼A. Edwards

89'▲B. Walters←▼E. Machacen

Deportivo Universitario substitutes

12Esquina3Avila11Caicedo21Valencia8Clarke10Moreno20Maltez99Espinoza22Walters9Dinolis

46'▲S. Cunningham←▼J. Rivera

46'▲E. Japa←▼J. Catuy

61'▲J. Rodriguez←▼J. Gonzalez

75'▲A. Saldana←▼R. Avila

85'▲M. Gamboa←▼A. Garcia

UMECIT substitutes

1Perez2Villegas3Medina30Gamboa8Cunningham16Rodriguez13Candelo17Peralta18Rodriguez99Japa19Saldana

Match Recap: Deportivo Universitario vs UMECIT

Deportivo Universitario and UMECIT drew 2-2 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on February 8, 2025.

Goals: J. Gonzalez (23'), J. Tobon (43'), E. Japa (81'), J. Simons (90').

The match was played at Estadio Universidad Latina.

Deportivo Universitario vs UMECIT — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Universitario vs UMECIT