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UMECIT vs Atlético Chiriquí — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

UMECIT
UMECIT
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Chiriquí
Atlético Chiriquí
10/14/2023Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 13Cancha de fútbol de Atalaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

UMECIT56%
×Draw25%
Atlético Chiriquí19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UMECIT
1.60
Atlético Chiriquí
0.81

UMECIT creates 98% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 66 away

creates per match

UMECIT
1.23
Atlético Chiriquí
0.65

allows per match

UMECIT
0.98
Atlético Chiriquí
1.97

finishing

UMECIT+0.00on par
Atlético Chiriquí+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMECIT ↓

Atlético Chiriquí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

UMECIT or draw
81%
UMECIT or Atlético Chiriquí
75%
Draw or Atlético Chiriquí
44%

Winning margin

UMECIT wins by 2+
30%
Atlético Chiriquí wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UMECIT 1+ goals
80%
UMECIT 2+ goals
47%
UMECIT 3+ goals
22%
Atlético Chiriquí 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Chiriquí 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Chiriquí 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UMECIT (draw refunded)
75%
Atlético Chiriquí (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMECIT at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

Atlético Chiriquí away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.97 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMECIT attack 1.23 + Atlético Chiriquí defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.60

Atlético Chiriquí attack 0.65 + UMECIT defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

UMECIT scores more
56%
level
25%
Atlético Chiriquí scores more
19%

UMECIT at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "UMECIT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UMECIT vs Atlético Chiriquí

UMECIT beat Atlético Chiriquí 4-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Cancha de fútbol de Atalaya in Atalaya.