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Atlético Chiriquí vs UMECIT — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Atlético Chiriquí
Atlético Chiriquí
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
UMECIT
UMECIT
1/29/2023Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 3Estadio San Cristóbal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Atlético Chiriquí34%
×Draw28%
UMECIT38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Chiriquí
1.14
UMECIT
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 57 away

creates per match

Atlético Chiriquí
0.99
UMECIT
0.88

allows per match

Atlético Chiriquí
1.54
UMECIT
1.28

finishing

Atlético Chiriquí+0.00on par
UMECIT+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Chiriquí ↓

UMECIT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Chiriquí or draw
62%
Atlético Chiriquí or UMECIT
72%
Draw or UMECIT
66%

Winning margin

Atlético Chiriquí wins by 2+
14%
UMECIT wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atlético Chiriquí 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Chiriquí 2+ goals
32%
Atlético Chiriquí 3+ goals
11%
UMECIT 1+ goals
70%
UMECIT 2+ goals
34%
UMECIT 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Chiriquí (draw refunded)
48%
UMECIT (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Chiriquí at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

UMECIT away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Chiriquí attack 0.99 + UMECIT defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

UMECIT attack 0.88 + Atlético Chiriquí defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlético Chiriquí scores more
34%
level
28%
UMECIT scores more
38%

UMECIT at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UMECIT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Chiriquí vs UMECIT

Atlético Chiriquí and UMECIT drew 1-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Cristóbal in Ciudad de David.