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Umea FF vs Linköping City — Ettan - Norra 2019

Umea FF
Umea FF
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Linköping City
Linköping City
6/23/2019Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Round 14Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Umea FF23%
×Draw22%
Linköping City54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umea FF
1.19
Linköping City
1.92

Linköping City creates 61% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Umea FF
1.18
Linköping City
1.53

allows per match

Umea FF
2.32
Linköping City
1.20

finishing

Umea FF+0.00on par
Linköping City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umea FF ↓

Linköping City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Umea FF or draw
46%
Umea FF or Linköping City
78%
Draw or Linköping City
77%

Winning margin

Umea FF wins by 2+
9%
Linköping City wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Umea FF 1+ goals
70%
Umea FF 2+ goals
33%
Umea FF 3+ goals
12%
Linköping City 1+ goals
85%
Linköping City 2+ goals
57%
Linköping City 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Umea FF (draw refunded)
30%
Linköping City (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umea FF at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.32 · 60 matches

Linköping City away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umea FF attack 1.18 + Linköping City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Linköping City attack 1.53 + Umea FF defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Umea FF scores more
23%
level
22%
Linköping City scores more
54%

Linköping City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Linköping City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Umea FF vs Linköping City

Umea FF and Linköping City drew 2-2 in Ettan - Norra on June 23, 2019.

The match was played at Umeå Energi Arena SOL in Umeå.