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Linköping City vs Umea FF — Ettan - Norra 2019

Linköping City
Linköping City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Umea FF
Umea FF
9/22/2019Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Round 24Arena Linköping

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Linköping City70%
×Draw18%
Umea FF12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linköping City
2.33
Umea FF
0.84

Linköping City creates 177% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 62 away

creates per match

Linköping City
2.33
Umea FF
0.82

allows per match

Linköping City
0.87
Umea FF
2.32

finishing

Linköping City+0.00on par
Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linköping City ↓

Umea FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Linköping City or draw
88%
Linköping City or Umea FF
82%
Draw or Umea FF
30%

Winning margin

Linköping City wins by 2+
47%
Umea FF wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Linköping City 1+ goals
90%
Linköping City 2+ goals
67%
Linköping City 3+ goals
41%
Umea FF 1+ goals
57%
Umea FF 2+ goals
21%
Umea FF 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Linköping City (draw refunded)
85%
Umea FF (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linköping City at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Umea FF away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linköping City attack 2.33 + Umea FF defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.33

Umea FF attack 0.82 + Linköping City defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Linköping City scores more
70%
level
18%
Umea FF scores more
12%

Linköping City at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Linköping City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: Linköping City 0–0 Umea FF

Linköping City and Umea FF drew 0-0 in Ettan - Norra on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Arena Linköping in Linköping.