Umea FF 2–4 Karlberg: Result & Stats

Umea FF

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Karlberg

9/27/2025

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 24Umea Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Umea FF27%

×Draw22%

Karlberg51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Umea FFExpected goals in this matchKarlberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.94

Umea FF

1.36

Karlberg

1.94

Karlberg creates 43% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 37 away

1.18

creates per match

1.57

2.32

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Umea FF

1.18

Karlberg

1.57

allows per match

Umea FF

2.32

Karlberg

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Umea FF+0.00on par

Karlberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umea FF ↓

Karlberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Umea FF or draw

49%

Umea FF or Karlberg

78%

Draw or Karlberg

73%

Winning margin

Umea FF wins by 2+

12%

Karlberg wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Umea FF 1+ goals

74%

Umea FF 2+ goals

39%

Umea FF 3+ goals

16%

Karlberg 1+ goals

86%

Karlberg 2+ goals

58%

Karlberg 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Umea FF (draw refunded)

35%

Karlberg (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umea FF at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.32 · 60 matches

Karlberg away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umea FF attack 1.18 + Karlberg defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Karlberg attack 1.57 + Umea FF defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Umea FF scores more

27%

level

22%

Karlberg scores more

51%

Karlberg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Karlberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff