Karlberg 1–1 Umea FF: Result & Stats

Karlberg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Umea FF

6/1/2025

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 11Stadshagens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Karlberg55%

×Draw22%

Umea FF24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarlbergExpected goals in this matchUmea FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.25

Karlberg

2.01

Umea FF

1.25

Karlberg creates 61% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 60 away

1.65

creates per match

0.83

1.68

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Karlberg

1.65

Umea FF

0.83

allows per match

Karlberg

1.68

Umea FF

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlberg+0.00on par

Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlberg ↓

Umea FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Karlberg or draw

76%

Karlberg or Umea FF

78%

Draw or Umea FF

45%

Winning margin

Karlberg wins by 2+

32%

Umea FF wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Karlberg 1+ goals

87%

Karlberg 2+ goals

59%

Karlberg 3+ goals

32%

Umea FF 1+ goals

71%

Umea FF 2+ goals

36%

Umea FF 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Karlberg (draw refunded)

70%

Umea FF (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlberg at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.68 · 37 matches

Umea FF away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlberg attack 1.65 + Umea FF defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.01

Umea FF attack 0.83 + Karlberg defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Karlberg scores more

55%

level

22%

Umea FF scores more

24%

Karlberg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Karlberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff