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Umea FF vs Boden — Division 2 - Norrland 2019

Umea FF
Umea FF
FT
0 – 0
Boden
Boden
8/14/2021Division 2 - NorrlandDivision 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 20Tegstunets IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Umea FF49%
×Draw22%
Boden29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umea FF
1.90
Boden
1.41

Umea FF creates 35% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 64 away

creates per match

Umea FF
2.76
Boden
1.70

allows per match

Umea FF
1.11
Boden
1.05

finishing

Umea FF+0.00on par
Boden+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umea FF ↓

Boden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Umea FF or draw
71%
Umea FF or Boden
78%
Draw or Boden
51%

Winning margin

Umea FF wins by 2+
27%
Boden wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Umea FF 1+ goals
85%
Umea FF 2+ goals
56%
Umea FF 3+ goals
29%
Boden 1+ goals
76%
Boden 2+ goals
41%
Boden 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Umea FF (draw refunded)
63%
Boden (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umea FF at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Boden away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umea FF attack 2.76 + Boden defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.90

Boden attack 1.70 + Umea FF defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Umea FF scores more
49%
level
22%
Boden scores more
29%

Umea FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Umea FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Umea FF 0 – 0 Boden

Umea FF and Boden drew 0-0 in Division 2 - Norrland on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Tegstunets IP in Umeå.