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Boden vs Umea FF — Division 2 - Norrland 2019

Boden
Boden
FT
1 – 2
Umea FF
Umea FF
7/11/2021Division 2 - NorrlandDivision 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 4Boden Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Boden37%
×Draw24%
Umea FF39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boden
1.54
Umea FF
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 46 away

creates per match

Boden
2.25
Umea FF
2.09

allows per match

Boden
1.12
Umea FF
0.83

finishing

Boden+0.00on par
Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boden ↓

Umea FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Boden or draw
61%
Boden or Umea FF
76%
Draw or Umea FF
63%

Winning margin

Boden wins by 2+
18%
Umea FF wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Boden 1+ goals
79%
Boden 2+ goals
45%
Boden 3+ goals
20%
Umea FF 1+ goals
80%
Umea FF 2+ goals
47%
Umea FF 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Boden (draw refunded)
48%
Umea FF (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boden at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.12 · 65 matches

Umea FF away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boden attack 2.25 + Umea FF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Umea FF attack 2.09 + Boden defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Boden scores more
37%
level
24%
Umea FF scores more
39%

Umea FF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Umea FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Boden 1 – 2 Umea FF

Umea FF beat Boden 2-1 in Division 2 - Norrland on July 11, 2021.

The match was played at Boden Arena in Boden.