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Umea FF vs Berga — Ettan - Norra 2019

Umea FF
Umea FF
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Berga
Berga
6/21/2020Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Umea FF51%
×Draw20%
Berga28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umea FF
2.23
Berga
1.63

Umea FF creates 37% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Umea FF
1.18
Berga
0.93

allows per match

Umea FF
2.32
Berga
3.27

finishing

Umea FF+0.00on par
Berga+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umea FF ↓

Berga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Umea FF or draw
72%
Umea FF or Berga
80%
Draw or Berga
49%

Winning margin

Umea FF wins by 2+
31%
Berga wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Umea FF 1+ goals
89%
Umea FF 2+ goals
65%
Umea FF 3+ goals
38%
Berga 1+ goals
80%
Berga 2+ goals
48%
Berga 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Umea FF (draw refunded)
64%
Berga (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umea FF at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.32 · 60 matches

Berga away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umea FF attack 1.18 + Berga defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.23

Berga attack 0.93 + Umea FF defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Umea FF scores more
51%
level
20%
Berga scores more
28%

Umea FF at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Umea FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Umea FF vs Berga

Umea FF beat Berga 2-0 in Ettan - Norra on June 21, 2020.