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Berga vs Umea FF — Ettan - Norra 2019

Berga
Berga
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Umea FF
Umea FF
9/6/2020Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 16Bergavik IP A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Berga44%
×Draw23%
Umea FF34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berga
1.79
Umea FF
1.55

Berga creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Berga
1.20
Umea FF
0.83

allows per match

Berga
2.27
Umea FF
2.37

finishing

Berga+0.00on par
Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berga ↓

Umea FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Berga or draw
66%
Berga or Umea FF
77%
Draw or Umea FF
56%

Winning margin

Berga wins by 2+
23%
Umea FF wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Berga 1+ goals
83%
Berga 2+ goals
53%
Berga 3+ goals
26%
Umea FF 1+ goals
79%
Umea FF 2+ goals
46%
Umea FF 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Berga (draw refunded)
56%
Umea FF (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berga at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Umea FF away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berga attack 1.20 + Umea FF defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.79

Umea FF attack 0.83 + Berga defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Berga scores more
44%
level
23%
Umea FF scores more
34%

Berga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Berga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Berga 0 – 1 Umea FF

Umea FF beat Berga 1-0 in Ettan - Norra on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Bergavik IP A in Kalmar.