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Umea FF vs AFC Eskilstuna — Ettan - Norra 2019

Umea FF
Umea FF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
4/26/2025Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 5Umea Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Umea FF34%
×Draw21%
AFC Eskilstuna44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umea FF
1.78
AFC Eskilstuna
2.04

AFC Eskilstuna creates 15% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 37 away

creates per match

Umea FF
1.18
AFC Eskilstuna
1.76

allows per match

Umea FF
2.32
AFC Eskilstuna
2.38

finishing

Umea FF+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umea FF ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Umea FF or draw
56%
Umea FF or AFC Eskilstuna
79%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
66%

Winning margin

Umea FF wins by 2+
17%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Umea FF 1+ goals
83%
Umea FF 2+ goals
53%
Umea FF 3+ goals
26%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
87%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
60%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Umea FF (draw refunded)
44%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umea FF at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.32 · 60 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.38 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umea FF attack 1.18 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.78

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Umea FF defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Umea FF scores more
34%
level
21%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
44%

AFC Eskilstuna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: Umea FF 1–1 AFC Eskilstuna

Umea FF and AFC Eskilstuna drew 1-1 in Ettan - Norra on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Umea Energi Arena SOL in Umea.